Travel performance declines as headwinds persist: Skift Research | Tech US News


Skift Take

Continued uncertainty and headwinds suppressed growth in October, with Skift’s Travel Health Index hovering around 85 percent since June with little movement.

Wouter Geerts

Skift Research has been tracking the performance of major travel sectors in 22 countries since the start of the pandemic in the Skift Travel Health Index. We have seen a steady upward trend, but the final push for full recovery seems more stubborn than we initially thought.

While strong demand was discussed in our Skift Aviation Forum this week, the latest Index Highlights report shows that there are enough uncertainties and headwinds to suppress overall growth in the travel industry. The Index is now hovering around 85 percent since June and has not been able to break through that metaphorical ceiling.

In October, the overall average Skift Travel Health Index score dropped three percentage points to 84 percent compared to October 2019. While this is a month-over-month decline, it is still 19 percentage points higher than a year ago.

Performance of the aviation sector

The Index consists of more than 80 indicators provided by 20 data partners and taken from public sources, so we can slice and dice the indicators in a way that provides a more detailed view of each sector’s performance. Here we provide a quick look at the performance of the aviation industry, with discussions of other sectors found in our latest report.

The Asia-Pacific region is seeing weakness across all stages of the travel experience, with searches and real performance (including data on seat capacity, load factors and passenger volume) around half of pre- pandemic Bookings for future flights are also down at just 30 percent of 2019 levels, indicating that weakness will continue for the foreseeable future.

North America is showing strong momentum going forward, with reserve levels falling 1 percent below 2019 levels and October’s actual yield at 93 percent.

When we break down the indicators by domestic and international performance, we see that international performance is virtually on par with domestic performance in North America, the Middle East and Africa. In Europe and Latin America, international performance is actually scoring higher than domestic performance. The black sheep is once again Asia Pacific, where international performance is suffering due to China’s continued border closures.

This view is corroborated by Cirium’s data on long-haul interregional flights. The strength of intra-Americas flights is in stark contrast to international Trans-Pacific and Asia-Oceania flights.

More analysis can be found in our October 2022 Highlights report and our Skift Travel Health Index dashboard.


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