Week 10 – QB List | Tech US News


Every week, I will use my OPPO meter (OPresponsibility P.Oints; information found here) go through who had the most valuable time of the week, who scored less than they expected, and who missed opportunities which they have given.

OPPO is the highest

The Raiders keep eating Josh Jacobs. He participated in every offense and put up 22.6 points on 25.7 OPPO. Jacobs earned 21 carries and 8 targets with an average of 6.8 catches, 132.5 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns. With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller out of the Depression Defense, he promised to see his participation in the last game (8 goals is a season high for him, and has doubled his season average ). He is RB7 from OPPO one game this season and has seen a high ceiling (see Week 4 and Week 7) and floor stuff in the Raiders offense.

Justin Jefferson is a beast this week, singlehandedly winning games in reality and in fantasy. He put up 35.3 fantasy points on OPPO’s 33.4. That’s the Top-3 OPPO this season and shows the incredible power it has, especially on an exciting team like the Vikings. It’s the Vikings’ only goal this week that could open up and/or keep the game going, which they need a lot in their back-to-back games against the Bills. The average of his 16 targets is 8.3 catches, 119.9 yards, and 2.2 touchdowns. He a little overperformed this week and continues to show the insights I mentioned in Week 8 of overperforming his yardage expectation while underperforming his touchdowns. After this performance, it is really WR1-B all from OPPO (for Davante Adams), so even if it regresses down to his expectations, he will continue to be a key weapon at wide receiver.

Dalton Schultz is the red-white option for the Cowboys this week. It gives 17.4 points of 16.4 OPPO, mostly thanks to Dak Prescott look his way early and often when the Cowboys get into the score. Schultz found 8 targets, with 4 from the Red Zone and the other outside of it, of 24. These targets are expected to leave 5.0 catches for 44.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns, which is the main point of action It’s good that Schultz has. If he continues to perform well on the field from Dallas, Schultz looks like a great addition to the offseason.

Now we have passed the half of the season, I will look at OPPO in the last 4 weeks for the over- & under performers, not throughout the season. This should keep the information relevant by focusing more on the player’s recent performances and time. Both schedules are also available in Google Sheets.

OPPO Underperformers

David Montgomery is primed for a rebound. Khalil Herbert, its main competition for touch in the back, only put on the IR that released 6 ~ OPPO a game. In addition to the potential for an increased role, Montgomery still has room to improve his rushing stats. His 53 carries in the last four weeks are expected to result in 224.1 yards and 1.7 touchdowns, compared to his actual 188 yards and 1 touchdown. Some good returns together with many opportunities make me comfortable to think that it 10.5 OPPO a game, at least, going forward.

Allen Robinson is starting to look like the player the Rams wanted when they signed him. This is another win-win, like Montgomery: Robinson has failed to achieve his goal and will benefit from the injury for his championship goal. Robinson has seen a respectable 6 targets per game and is expected to drop 1.5 touchdowns from them over the past four weeks. He has 0 touchdowns from targets, and I think there will be some good returns there. It should also be seen more, eg Cooper Cooper and his ~11 goals per game potential heading into the offseason. Robinson has a great opportunity to go in for a large number of goals, while also recovering more from the goals he sees. I will look at his 11.4 OPPO a game, and use that as a starting point for my expectations.

Well, well, well… We meet again, Kyle Pitts. Pitts has been the poster boy of the crash, but I still teach patience. Pitts has seen more than 7 targets per game in the last 4 weeks (3rd most by a tight end), which is perfect for the anemic state of the Falcons’ passing game . In addition to the raw volume, these qualities have the advantage of the price: he is expected to see ~ 240 yards and ~ 2 touchdowns during that time, a combination that makes him TE2 all by OPPO . It looks like a good buy-low this late in the season, and I would rate it close to its 13.4 OPPO per game.

OPPO Overperformers

Tony Pollard Been hitting it over the past 4 weeks. He has seen 16 carries and 3 goals per game, which is easily the most in his career. Unfortunately, I don’t think that his products will meet what we have seen, even with continued use (which is doubtful, with Ezekiel Elliott start healthy). He has rushed for almost 7 yards per carry and is averaging more than a touchdown per game, which are both bigger than expected. His carries are expected to result in over 100 fewer rushing yards and 3 (!) fewer touchdowns than he had back in the last four weeks. I want to say that his 13.4 OPPO one game is his ceiling going forward, after making some bad recovery and health Zeke removed his carry.

Miami is firing on all cylinders, though Jaylen Waddle is going above and beyond even the high expectations of that offense. He has seen less than 7 targets per game and has turned that into 1 touchdown and over 85 yards per game. Based on the targets he’s seen, I would expect half his touchdown output and 25 less yards per game. He was well-received by his speed and by Tyreek Hill take some help away from it, but it is still very difficult to be as good as it is for a few purposes. I would like to see him go to great performance, but more attention is given to OPPO’s 12.4 points per game, not his 18.4 fantasy points per game. It’s worth noting that he has a sky-high ceiling in this offense, as his Week 2 performance is. usually OPPO (34.9) from all players this year.

Juan Johnson has been the worst case in New Orleans. He has seen 18 targets in the last four weeks and caught 14 of them, including 4 touchdowns. It’s that last number that’s hard to predict going forward, as his targets typically result in ~1.2 touchdowns. The nearly 3 touchdown differential is all at his best, and the return game can happen quickly and mercilessly (see tight ends Buy Dissly and Taisom Hill). He’ll still be exposed in an offense where his 2nd best receiver is a running back, but I’d bet on a weekly release close to his 8.4 OPPO per action instead of his touchdown-inflated 12.8 points per game.

Quick Hits

I want to have a place to call out the players who have no writing but still worth mentioning because OPPO is more important than 4 weeks ago.

RB: Travis Etienne (18.2 OPPO per game; RB7 overall), Antonio Gibson (13.7; IB 16). Miles Sanders (8.4; RB39); Isaiah Pacheco (5.2; RB52)

WR: Christian Kirk (16.1; WR10), DJ Moore (16.0; WR11), DK Metcalf (12.0; WR28), Amari Cooper (8.1; WR60)

TE: Pat Freiermuth (12.4; XIV), Tyler Conklin (10.9; XIV), George Kittle (9.5; TSO 10), Taisom Hill (4.1; TSO 35)

Disagree? Think anyone else has had more luck/unluck this season? Let me know @blandalytics!

(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)


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