Week 9 – QB List | Tech US News


Every week, I will use my OPPO meter (OPresponsibility P.Oints; information found here) go through who had the most valuable time of the week, who scored less than they expected, and who missed opportunities which they have given.

OPPO is the highest

Joe Mixon at the end Break! A frequent guest in the Actors section, Mixon was OFF for 55.1 points (!!!) of 26.2 OPPO. It really undid 8 weeks worth of OPPO underperformance in a game, while still earning a ton of OPPO. The Bengals gave him 22 carries and 5 goals, and he kept saving them money. These opportunities usually result in 3.4 catches, 102.3 yards, and 2.1 touchdowns. It makes me very happy to report that Joe Mixon is still a very valuable asset, and you are hopefully reading this article and being able to get Mixon at a discount (or keep the faith if you have written it).

Vindication Brooklyn GIF - Vindication Brooklyn 99 ...

Davante Adams bounced back in a big way this week, with 36.6 fantasy points on 30.1 OPPO. He is now the proud owner of 2 of the Top-6 OPPO players of the season (he had 34.1 OPPO in Week 1). Through the improbable Week 8, Adams scored a goal as expected in every way he ran against Jacksonville, finishing with 17. He displayed his efficiency, along with these goals come from all situations: short dump-offs, deep 30+ yd shots, and high value looks to the goal line. The only thing missing is a goal from inside the red zone. The need for these goals is 11.4 catches, 161.3 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns.

I should consider renaming this section “Travis Kelce Corner”, along with the way it often appears here. In his last appearance here, he monopolized Kansas City’s goal-line view, with 2.3 expected touchdowns on just 8 targets. This time, it happened everywhere others on the field, has been loose for 17 targets which usually results in 12.4 catches for 122.2 yards (most for a tight end this season!) and 0.2 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kelce has shown the depth of his ability and his performance in this offense. Whatever the Chiefs want, Kelce can do it, and he’ll be one of the best in the NFL at doing it.

Now we have passed the half of the season, I will look at OPPO in the last 4 weeks for the over- & under performers, not throughout the season. This should keep the information relevant by focusing more on the player’s recent performances and time. Both schedules are also available in Google Sheets.

OPPO Underperformers

For the first time every season, Saquon Barkley is underperforming its opportunities. At the beginning of this year, he showed his skills and often completed his chances, but recently he received less points on his speed than expected (246 yards and 2 touchdowns vs the expected 270 yards and 2.6 touchdowns). Barkley is one of the most talented players in the league and is putting up an elite 17.1 points per game, but I see a way for him to improve on his 19.6 points per game. .

Marvin Jones has been carving out a role as a strong second option for the Jaguars’ passing game. About 6 goals per game is way to realistic, and Jones’ opportunities are plentiful. Jones did a good job of catching (9 vs 9.7 expected), but he was off the ground and yardage on the table (105 yards and 0 touchdowns vs expected 146.6 yards and 1.1 touchdowns). If he continues to perform in Jacksonville, I think Jones will reach his 10.3 OPPO per game.

Although affected by injury, Mark Andrews has put up respectable numbers in the last 4 weeks (10.1 points per game over 3 games), and this seems like a good time to buy into him at a discount. Not only has he been slowed by injuries, but he’s also been as bad as he’s seen (mostly, he’s expected to get 1 more touchdown). Once the Ravens’ Week 10 bye is over, I think Andrews will be closer to his 12.7 OPPO per game (and closer to his season-long 15.5 OPPO per game).

OPPO Overperformers

Derrick Henry is a beast, but even he has his limits. He’s seeing a whopping 26 carries a game, so his timing isn’t in question (although only ~1 goal per game is a bit underwhelming). The concern is what it does with the lifts. He rushed for 130 more yards than expected and scored almost twice as many touchdowns as expected (4 vs 2.2 expected). Henry is a great running back and has the ability to win a fantasy matchup single-handedly, but I think it’s a good thing to expect to do well close to his 17.3 OPPO one game (also RB7 overall!), instead of his 25.4 points per game.

This week I will go with a pair of wide receivers, so Michael Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster yes everyone strong work over their time, because they all have 9+ differences between their OPPO a game and their results. It seems like everything that Kansas City touches in the game turns to gold (looking at you, Travis Kelce), but Hardman and Smith-Schuster may be more fake than real. Hardman caught 3 touchdowns, compared to the expected 1, plus almost 50 more yards than expected. Smith-Schuster hauled in 22 catches for 325 yards while he was expected to have 17.4 catches for 180 yards. I expect that both players will continue to be valuable assets, but they will do so by being close to their OPPO per game (12.9 for Smith-Schuster and 10.5 for Hardman ).

With the Bears seemingly seeing their passing game, it will be easy to see Cole Kmetthe progress continues. He did very well, turning 14 targets into 10 catches and 3 touchdowns. As we’ve seen, touchdowns can be elusive, and I think Kmet will see less of them going forward (he has 1.7 needs in the last 4 weeks). In addition to the regression performance, its role in the crime will change: e.g Chase Claypool cause more impact in the offense, I expect less for Kmet. I could see him doing better for his 7.3 OPPO per game, but even that might be a bit high with Kmet’s new challenge for the goal.

Quick Hits

I want to have a place to call out the players who have no writing but still worth mentioning because OPPO is more important than 4 weeks ago.

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (21.4 OPPO per game; RB2 overall!!), Travis Etienne (18.1; RB6). Tony Pollard (10.0; RB30), D’Onta Foreman (9.7; RB31); Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5.1; RB57).

WR: Chris Godwin (18.5; WR4), Allen Lazard (16.7; WR11), AJ Brown (14.7; WR18), Tyler Boyd (10.4; WR42).

TE: Gerald Everett (13.4; XIV), TJ Hockenson (9.8; TSO 12), Taisom Hill (4.4; TSO 37), Tyler Higbee (4.3; TSO 38)

Disagree? Think anyone else has had more luck/unluck this season? Let me know @blandalytics!

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)


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